PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 19, 2011 – We have revised up our real GDP growth projection for Mexico to 4.1% in 2011, from 3.4% previously, on the back of a stronger outlook for US demand and domestic commercial credit. Yet there is still insufficient evidence that this robust performance will spill-over into stronger domestic demand beyond 2012, implying that Mexican growth over the long term will continue to underperform its historic average. This belief is reflected in our rather underwhelming growth predictions for the freight transport sector.
Our outlook for the Mexican consumer remains cautious, too. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains very wary, although there has been a slight improvement in this indicator over the past few months. Over the long term, we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Headline Industry Data
* Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 9.72% in 2011, with average annual growth of 7.67% during our forecast period. * Air freight tonnes-km forecast to grow 3.8% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4.7% during our forecast period. * Port of Manzanillo total tonnage forecast to grow 6.55% in 2011, with average annual growth of 9.11% during our forecast period. * Port of Veracruz total tonnage forecast to grow 3.93% in 2011, with average annual growth of 5.71% during our forecast period. * Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3% in 2011, mustang car with average annual growth of 4% during our forecast period. * Rail freight tonnes-km forecast to grow 4% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4% during our forecast period . * Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 4% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3% during our forecast period. * Road freight tonnes-km forecast to grow 4% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3% during our forecast period. * Inland waterway freight tonnes forecast to grow 2% in 2011, with average annual growth of 4% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
NAFTA Trucking Dispute Headed For Agreement In 2011?
BMI is hopeful that the US-Mexico cross-border trucking dispute will be resolved in 2011 after US officials travelled to Mexico to initiate new talks on the issue. Although we have seen similar discussions fail in the past, we believe that Obama's drive to double US exports by 2020 makes an agreement on the issue likely this year. Transportation secretary Ray LaHood said he expects to have an agreement to revive cross-border trucking between the US and Mexico in place by the middle of the year after sending US officials to Mexico to present the department's plan to the government there. 'We will have a final agreement by the middle of the year,' LaHood said at the SMC3 annual winter meeting in Atlanta. BMI believes the proposal involves new inspection and monitoring procedures for Mexican long-haul trucks crossing the border.
Mexican Throughput Up As US Consumers Spend, Mexicans Not Splashing The Cash Yet
According to figures from the Mexico's General Coordinator of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM), Mexican ports handled 307,206 containers in January 2011, an increase of 20% y-o-y. Most of this traffic was handled by the country's main container port, Manzanillo, which moved 126,300 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), an increase of 30% on January 2010 when it handled 96,900TEUs. Veracruz moved 55,661 containers in January, a y-o-y increase of 22.9%. The port of Lazero Cardenas handled 69,302TEUs, a yo- y increase of 18.4%. Altamira handled 40,000TEUs, a y-o-y increase of 19.2%.
APM Terminal Continues Latin America Expansion Drive, Eyes Lazaro Cardenas Concession
APM Terminals (APMT) is continuing its drive to expand its operations in Latin America. The Dutch firm's regional manager for Latin America, Henrik Pederson, has confirmed that it is interested in bidding to operate a container terminal at Mexico's Lazaro Cardenas port. BMI believes that the company's interest in Latin America reflects the region's growing importance in global logistics.
Risks To Outlook
On the upside, the outlook our outlook for US consumers is now slightly more positive than initially expected. According to the US National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) for January increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December and 3.5% unadjusted y-o-y. 'In spite of the economic uncertainties that still exist, consumers are clearly demonstrating their desire to spend on discretionary items once again', said NRF president and CEO Matthe goverment technology w Shay. This cautiously optimistic outlook ties in with BMI's view on US consumer spending in 2011. We have raised our 2011 US real GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% from 2.0%, with a significant lift in private consumption being the main driver. This is good news for Mexican port which import goods destined for the US.
2011 Chrysler 200 Convertible >On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains very wary, although there has been a slight improvement in this indicator over the past few months. Over the long term, we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness.
For more information or to purchase this report, go
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar